Behind the Numbers 10.18.07: Adrian Peterson
Thanks for tuning into your weekly dose of Behind the Numbers. Unfortunately this week is going to be a little light, so my apologies there. Let me first say that I’m really enjoying the reader feedback I’m receiving. Let’s jump into a few comments before we take a look at Adrian Peterson.
Bryan writes: “people praise Tony Romo for throwing 5 interceptions on Mondays game vs the Bills…but please tell me how that is any different than the times last year when the Bears won and Rex Grossman had a qb rating of 40? How are those 2 situations any different?”
Because Romo passed for over 300 yards and had 2 TDs, his rating for Monday night’s game was 49.9. Unfortunately for Grossman, when he has bad games, he has ratings of 10.2, 36.8, 23.6, 1.3, 0.0, and 43.4. So I think you’re right…. people are using the rating to justify bashing him.
Personally I think Romo is a Pro Bowl calibur player, and his biggest problem is making risky plays too often. But when you have the weapons that he has, you have a much better chance of a risky play paying off. Unfortunately for Grossman, he doesn’t have weapons around him. The Bears’ offense is horrible and he took the blame for it. When you don’t have a running game, defenses are ready to stomp your passing attack. In a better system I think he could flourish.
Jason writes: So it’s confirmed that Ben Roethlisberger is a better QB than Dan Marino. It must be true, he has a Super Bowl ring. Right? Go Steelers!
Seriously though, fumbles lost should be included with INT’s and would send Culpepper’s rating plunging. Another idea would be to weight the 4th qtr more heavily so proven clutch performers like Vince Young could have a rating that better reflects their ability to win close games. I think the system is worth using if used correctly. In a time when most QB’s are asked to “manage the game”, which just means move the chains when possible and limit mistakes, it’s a decent tool for when I’m watching a game and someone I rarely or never see takes the field. I’m able to identify which of the three tiers he is on: good, mediocre, Rex Grossman.
While he has some great ideas to improve the system, I would personally rather judge a quarterback by his play on the field. And if you can’t catch his game, I think the other stats tell enough to give you an idea. Two weeks into this and we’re going after Dan Marino. My buddy Alan is going to love to see that one.
We’re already going into our seventh week of the 2007 season and there have been a ton of stories to follow. The Patriots and Colts are headed for a week 9 showdown, where they should both be undefeated going into it. The Cowboys look like the team to beat in the NFC, with the Packers looking like contenders as well. The Saints, Bears, and Rams have been complete disappointments and Brett Favre is the story of the year so far. Lost in all of this is the play of the Vikings’ Adrian Peterson. As much as I love to take shots at the Sooners (Hook em Horns!), there is no denying that AP is the real deal. Going into the draft, there was some concern about his “durability issues” since he had been injured a few times in college. Luckily, for the Vikings and their fans, that is why we have scouts in the NFL. You don’t have to look far to see that his injuries were to three separate locations, so the idea of him having durability issues was ridiculous.
Adrian Peterson is quietly having a record year as a rookie. He currently leads the NFL in rushing with 607 yards and has done this on 96 carries for an insane 6.3 yards per attempt. He is on pace for 1,942 yards on the ground, which would be an all-time record for rookies. The record is currently held by Eric Dickerson with 1,808 yards in 1983. While I could not find information on the most 100 yard games in a season for rookies, he is on pace for 13 such games which would put him in second place behind Barry Sanders (14 games) in 1997. If he continues at this pace he will have 13 rushing touchdowns, which would tie him for 9th overall for a rookie. Those ahead of him?
Eric Dickerson (1983) 18 td
Ickey Woods (1988) 15 td
Mike Anderson (2000) 15 td
Clinton Portis (2002) 15 td
Gale Sayers (1965) 14 td
Barry Sanders (1989) 14 td
Curtis Martin (1995) 14 td
Fred Taylor (1998) 14 td
Needless to say, that is not bad company to be thrown in with. What makes his season really amazing is that he is leading the Vikings to the number one rushing offense in the league with 170.2 yards per game. AP is chipping in 121.4 yard per game, which is more than 18 other teams. Although they have the 28th passing offense (169.2 yards/game) the offense is ranked 12th overall. The quarterback situation is not looking good, so it’s safe to say that AP is carrying the offense on his back.
If you’re not yet convinced, look at his total yards from scrimmage. He’s on pace for 2,502 total yards which is 73 more than Marshall Faulk’s record in 1999. Yes, he’s that good. If you follow college football, you knew that AP would be a franchise player. Like I said before, I love ripping on Oklahoma, but AP has shut me up on a number of occasions. So I’ve eaten enough humble pie to know that he’s going to be great, but I had no clue he would be this good. He’s putting up these numbers when teams know that he’s going to be running the ball, he’s facing a ton of eight man fronts. Imagine the numbers he could put up if the Vikings had a passing game to keep defenses honest, it’s scary. He’s been knocked for “durability issues” and his stand-up running style, but the bottom line is that the man is a beast. He has been compared to Eric Dickerson and, in this case, the numbers don’t lie. He has the talent to be a Hall of Fame back, but time will tell the story.
Again, I apologize for the short column this week, but I look forward to your feedback. Send feedback, hate mail, and brownies to: chris@phatdragon.com
