Just an interesting note about the $350 million rip-off that is Alex Rodriguez. He and super-agent, Scott Boras, are asking for an amount that surpasses the value of 11 MLB teams, including the Colorado Rockies. There is no doubt that A-Rod is one of the best players in the league, but he is worth nowhere near $350 million. If any team actually pays that amount, they will not be able to pay for any talent to surround him. When you consider the fact that the Yankees couldn’t win a World Series with him, what makes anyone else think they can? He’s not a leader, he only looks after himself. This much was shown when Boras decided to announce A-Rod’s free agency during the World Series.

I could go on about how much of a punk he is and how he’s not worth anything near what he’s asking, but I think we all know. But just to drive the point home, consider this:

While playing for the Mariners, the team went 83-79 on average during his 4 full seasons. The 4 years after he went to the Rangers? The Mariners averaged an 98-64 record. As for the Rangers, they averaged 74-88 during the 3 seasons with him and 85-77 without him. For being the greatest player on earth, a star-studded Yankees team went 93-69 with him. For what he’s asking, he should be leading his team to 100 wins every year. We won’t even discuss his playoff performances. $350 million for what?

It’s Friday again, and time for another dose of Behind the Numbers. This week we’ll take a look at the biggest regular season game in quite awhile as the Patriots travel to the RCA Dome to take on the Colts. Before that, however, we’ll cover the top stories of the week.

1) The Red Sox win the World Series. Yes, this is an NFL column, but I want to tip my hat to the Sox for their incredible run in the playoffs ending in a sweep of a very talented Rockies team. For the first time in my 26.91 years I actually made an effort to watch baseball, and I was not disappointed. The Sox have some incredibly talented young players in Pedroia, Ellsbury, Lester, and Papelbon and they are going to be fun to watch for years to come. I almost bought myself a Pedroia jersey the other day, but I couldn’t bring myself to part with $70 for it. Let me just end this by saying that those guys are serious gamers.

2) Tony Romo’s contract extension. Da’ Boys finally have a franchise quarterback since Troy Aikman’s retirement. Some people feel like Da’ Boys overpaid at $67.5 million over 6 years ($31 million guaranteed) but I’m not going to complain one bit. Keep in mind we’ve put up with the likes of Ryan Freakin’ Leaf and Quincy Carter, so the team has made worse decisions than spending a lot of money on one player. Plus, if you’re Sports Illustrated’s Fan Nation, you can continue covering hard hitting stories like Romo partying with Britney Spears.

3) Cedric Benson lashes out. “They’re not watching the games or the plays. They’re just throwing out criticism. Do I need to run with more of a burst? No. And [expletive] them,” Benson said. Wow, that’s more passion than he’s shown on the field. He went on to point out that he only had 13 carries and if he had 8-10 more he would have hit the 100 yard mark. I’m a huge Texas fan (Hook ‘em Horns!) but I can’t defend this knucklehead. I understand he’s not the reason for the Bears’ struggles, but he isn’t helping the situation. It’s not his numbers that have people concerned, it’s the way he plays. On some plays you’d think he was a fullback with the way he runs.

4) Chad Pennington is benched for Kellen Clemens. The season is a wash already, so it’s not going to matter, but at least the pissy Jets fans get their wish. I feel bad for Pennington, though, because there’s nothing he can do to please the fans. He could pass for 300 yards and 3 tds and the fans will still boo him. Clemens could throw 4 picks and be called the savior of the franchise. Don’t get me wrong, Clemens is going to be a good player, but I don’t think he’s done enough to warrant the change.

5) Patriots “run up the score.” Redskins LB Randall Godfrey said “I said something to (Belichick) after the game. I told him, ‘You need to show some respect for the game.’ You just don’t do that. I don’t care how bad it is. You’re up 35 points and you’re still throwing deep? That’s no respect.” According to Godfrey, coaches like Joe Gibbs would never do such a thing. WRONG! Back in 1983, the Gibbs-led Redskins beat the St. Louis Cardinals 45-7. Then they beat the Los Angeles Rams 51-7 in the playoffs that year. Somehow 52-7 is a lot different than 51-7 when you’re not on the team with 7. I have one thing to say to all of you criticizing the Patriots for “running up the score.” SHUT UP. This is football! We like to think of these players as warriors on the field, and then they whine like a 5 year old. I’ll gladly trade in my 9-5 job to get my butt knocked all over the field 52-7 and you want sympathy? Let me just end this now. SHUT UP. Thank you, drive through…

Now onto the big game. For the past few years one of the biggest debates in football is “who ya got?” Is it Manning with his ridiculous statistics and his ability to out-think opposing teams? Or is it Brady, the guy from seemingly nowhere who just finds a way to win the big games? The truth is you can’t go wrong with either one, which is why this debate is still burning today. Many people, myself included, have maintained that Brady doesn’t have the numbers that Manning does because he doesn’t have the weapons that Manning has. So far Brady has backed that up now that he has Moss, Welker, Stallworth, etc. But the truth is, Manning is still incredible. While those two will be the main story this week, we have two incredible teams going head to head. This is being called, by some, the most hyped regular season game ever and they could be right. There is a good chance that we’re seeing a preview of the AFC Championship game on Sunday.

Since 2002 the Patriots and Colts have met seven times, including three postseason matchups. During the regular season the teams are tied 2-2, but the Patriots have the edge in playoff games 2-1. What many people forget, however, is that the Colts have won the past three meetings including a 40-21 thrashing back in 2005. Obviously these teams have made some personnel changes since last season, most notably the Patriots, so these are not the same two teams facing off. One huge advantage for the Colts is going to be the home-field advantage. The Colts are 25-2 at home during the regular season since 2004. During that same time span the Patriots are 22-6 on the road, a very impressive record. The Indianapolis crowd will be a factor, no doubt, but the Patriots have been incredibly focused all year. So Colts fans will need to be on their best (or worst) behavior on Sunday to distract the Patriots into a false start or two. When you have teams like these facing off, it is the little things that can make a big difference.

During post-season, Tom Brady is 61 of 98 for 613 yards, 3 td, and 2 picks against the Colts. Although unspectacular, he’s been efficient which is why the Patriots have the one game edge in the postseason between the two teams. Keep in mind that the Patriots were one drive away from going to the Super Bowl instead last year. As for Manning, he’s a very unimpressive 77 of 136 for 824 yards, 2 td, and 6 picks in the post-season against the Patriots. His worst performance was in the 2003 AFC Championship game where he threw 4 picks. Luckily for Manning, this is the regular season where he has played very well against the Patriots. In the regular season he is 93 of 150 for 1181 yards, 11 td, and 4 ints against the Patriots, including last year when he went for 20 of 36 for 326 yards, 2 td, and 1 int. Brady, on the other hand is 94 of 141 for 1037 yards, 8 td, and 7 int against the Colts in the regular season. And considering that the Colts have won the last two regular season meetings, he has a slight edge in that category.

In a strange twist of fate, perhaps, Manning will be the one with fewer weapons this weekend. Marvin Harrison is likely to play but has been out for 2 of the 3 recent games for the Colts. If he does play, he won’t be at 100%, which is a huge blow to the Colts. Brady, on the other hand, comes into this game with a ton of offensive weapons. Ben Watson has missed the last 2 games, so that could be a factor, but when you have the receiving corp that the Patriots possess, you’re going to be fine. The biggest question marks for the Patriots are Richard Seymour and Asante Samuel. Seymour missed the second half of last week’s “game” against the Redskins, while Samuel missed Wednesday’s practice. I can’t believe I’m saying this, but Samuel is the more important of the two players, so if he’s out this weekend, the defense is really going to have to step it up. As for the Colts’ defense, linebackers Tyjuan Hagler and Freddie Keiaho are probable and questionable as of this moment. That could open the middle of the field for the Patriots, which would be deadly. The Colts need both players Sunday or they will have a huge hole to fill.

So I’m sure you’re wondering who I got this Sunday. We have the Colts, winners of the last three match-ups and are ranked #3 offensively and #4 defensively, numbers that usually favor any team. The Patriots, however, are #1 offensively and #3 defensively. Combine that with a reloaded offense and defense, and I think you have your winners there. I can’t even call this one a prediction, so my guess for Sunday is New England 38, Indianapolis 31. You do NOT want to miss this game. While this win is important for both teams, I’m going to ride the bandwagon that says you’ll see them play again in January.

As always, send your hate mail and love letters to chris@phatdragon.com

It may have been against the Dolphins, but I still can’t get over Randy Moss’ two touchdowns last week. As if we weren’t impressed with the first score, a 35 yard toss where Moss jumped over two backs for the catch, he decided to follow it up on the very next drive with another touchdown grab. It was a 50 yard bomb from Brady and not only was Moss in double coverage, he caught it one armed. That just goes to show you the incredible talent that Moss has. You could debate that Marvin Harrison, Terrell Owens, Steve Smith, Chad Johnson, or even Plaxico Burress are at the top of the NFL, but Moss is having such an incredible year that it’s sick. Seven games into the season and he already has 44 catches for 732 yards and 10 touchdowns, putting him on pace for 101 receptions, 1673 yards, and a ridiculous 23 touchdowns. In case you were wondering, the record is 22 touchdowns by Jerry Rice in 1987, so needless to say this would be one of the greatest seasons ever. Unless, of course, you are Chris Liwienski and the rest of the Dolphins. “‘Everyone was disappointed with the lack of respect. It’s a kick in the teeth and lacked some class. Enough is enough.” is what Liwienski had to say about the Patriots passing with a big lead. So it looks like the Dolphins are so pathetic at 0-7 that they want teams to go easy on them. For the record, the Patriots only had one drive in the 3rd quarter and only 2 of their 7 plays were rushes. In the 4th quarter they had three drives and the first one ended when Jason Taylor intercepted Matt Cassell for a touchdown, cutting the lead to just three touchdowns at 42-21. The Patriots scored through the air on their next drive, but out of 5 plays, 2 were rushes. With less than 4 minutes on the clock, the Patriots rushed on 5 of 6 plays. Regardless of how you feel about the Patriots’ actions, do you really expect a team to go easy on another team? It’s going to be a very long year in Miami. They’ve lost their starting quarterback and running back, and traded away their “#1 receiver.” I put that in quotes because Chris Chambers is a #2 receiver. Sounds like they’re extremely frustrated and taking shots at the Patriots seems to be the thing to do this year. Depending on who you listen to, they’re cheaters, dirty players, and now bullies. Or, if you’re the type to be realistic, you realize they could go down as the greatest team ever. Yes, it’s week 8 and I’m calling them the greatest ever. I understand that, like any team, they are a few injuries away from an early January exit, but I’ll stand by that comment. And for the record, I’m a Cowboys fan, so let’s not talk about that game.

Of course the other side to Randy Moss’ success is “Mr. GQ” Tom Brady. As much as I don’t like the quarterback rating system, I must note that Brady had a perfect 158.3 rating against the Dolphins. He was 21 of 25 for 354 yards and 6 touchdowns, which is about as perfect as it gets. For the past few seasons the debate has been Brady vs Manning and, now that Manning finally won the big one, he was considered the better of the two. Many people forget that the Patriots were one drive away from going to the Super Bowl instead last year. So Scott Pioli and Bill Belichick went out and got him three new presents in Moss, Stallworth, and Welker. Brady is on pace to destroy Manning’s 2004 numbers. Manning went for 4,557 yards on 67.6% accuracy for 49 touchdowns and only 10 interceptions. Brady is on pace for 4,857 yards, on 73.8% accuracy for 62 touchdowns and 5 interceptions. Keep in mind, however, that Manning’s numbers are from 15 games essentially. But Brady is on pace for 58 touchdowns in 15 games, so he’s still blowing that record away. Moss, Stallworth, and Welker could all end up with 1,000+ yards this year, another mark that Manning has. It will be fun to watch Brady and Moss chase their respective records, but we’re not even half-way through the season although the Patriots already have a 4.5 game lead in the AFC East.

Some interesting observations:

* Roddy White has 33 receptions for 530 yards and 2 touchdowns, already surpassing his totals from last year. The Falcons are struggling at 1-6, but White and Harrington are coming along nicely. I said it before and I still think Joey Harrington could be solid.
* The Chiefs might finally have a 1,000 yard receiver not named Gonzalez with rookie Dwayne Bowe. The former LSU Tiger has been a major reason for the Chiefs are atop the AFC West at 4-3. It’s nice to see Priest Holmes back in action, but it will be interesting to see if he and LJ can co-exist.
* Another breakout receiver is the Browns’ Braylon Edwards, who is on pace for 77 receptions, 1472 yards, and 19 scores. Kellen Winslow is on pace for 77 grabs, 1349 yards, and a solid 5 scores. They’ve only played 6 games, but along with Derek Anderson and Jamal Lewis, they are looking like a team to take seriously. They won’t make the playoffs this year, but they’ll be close.
* The talk in Arizona has been the quarterback situation, but Edgerrin James is 3rd in rushing yards and on pace for 1378 yards and 9 touchdowns. His yards per carry aren’t great at 3.9, but it’s a solid improvement from 3.4 last year.
* Mario Williams and 20 year old rookie, Amobi Okoye, have combined for 39 tackles and 7 sacks. This is a promising start for these two young players along with DeMeco Ryans. Matt Shaub is doing a good job for a first year starter. It’s a shame that they play in the competitive AFC South, but they’re only a few years from being a serious contender.

The Dolphins and the Giants are playing the first regular season game outside of North America this Sunday at Wembley Stadium in London. NFL Europa was closed down this year, so this is an important event for the game. If you think about it, it’s a lot like the Harlem Globetrotters taking basketball globally with the Dolphins playing the role of the Washington Generals. Recently the Buffalo Bills asked for permission to play a pre-season and regular season game in Toronto, so the globalization is on. The hope is that we’ll eventually have football’s version of Dirk Nowitzki and Yao Ming. We’re probably a good 10 to 20 years off, but it’ll happen. When that happens the real show will be watching the Raider Nation and British Hooligans feud. While the NFL looks to expand abroad, they’re having problems on home soil. Cable companies such as Comcast and Time Warner have placed the NFL Network in extra packages instead of having the channel standard, such as with ESPN, Spike, TNT, etc. Commissioner Roger Gooddell slammed the cable operators for the move, especially Comcast. According to Gooddell, “We have one cable operator close to here, which has taken us from nine million homes to one million homes, and that’s a significant difference.”

For those of you staying up late for the World Series, I leave you with this. As always, feel free to drop me some feedback at chris@phatdragon.com

Thanks for tuning into your weekly dose of Behind the Numbers. Unfortunately this week is going to be a little light, so my apologies there. Let me first say that I’m really enjoying the reader feedback I’m receiving. Let’s jump into a few comments before we take a look at Adrian Peterson.

Bryan writes: “people praise Tony Romo for throwing 5 interceptions on Mondays game vs the Bills…but please tell me how that is any different than the times last year when the Bears won and Rex Grossman had a qb rating of 40? How are those 2 situations any different?”

Because Romo passed for over 300 yards and had 2 TDs, his rating for Monday night’s game was 49.9. Unfortunately for Grossman, when he has bad games, he has ratings of 10.2, 36.8, 23.6, 1.3, 0.0, and 43.4. So I think you’re right…. people are using the rating to justify bashing him.

Personally I think Romo is a Pro Bowl calibur player, and his biggest problem is making risky plays too often. But when you have the weapons that he has, you have a much better chance of a risky play paying off. Unfortunately for Grossman, he doesn’t have weapons around him. The Bears’ offense is horrible and he took the blame for it. When you don’t have a running game, defenses are ready to stomp your passing attack. In a better system I think he could flourish.

Jason writes: So it’s confirmed that Ben Roethlisberger is a better QB than Dan Marino. It must be true, he has a Super Bowl ring. Right? Go Steelers!

Seriously though, fumbles lost should be included with INT’s and would send Culpepper’s rating plunging. Another idea would be to weight the 4th qtr more heavily so proven clutch performers like Vince Young could have a rating that better reflects their ability to win close games. I think the system is worth using if used correctly. In a time when most QB’s are asked to “manage the game”, which just means move the chains when possible and limit mistakes, it’s a decent tool for when I’m watching a game and someone I rarely or never see takes the field. I’m able to identify which of the three tiers he is on: good, mediocre, Rex Grossman.

While he has some great ideas to improve the system, I would personally rather judge a quarterback by his play on the field. And if you can’t catch his game, I think the other stats tell enough to give you an idea. Two weeks into this and we’re going after Dan Marino. My buddy Alan is going to love to see that one.

We’re already going into our seventh week of the 2007 season and there have been a ton of stories to follow. The Patriots and Colts are headed for a week 9 showdown, where they should both be undefeated going into it. The Cowboys look like the team to beat in the NFC, with the Packers looking like contenders as well. The Saints, Bears, and Rams have been complete disappointments and Brett Favre is the story of the year so far. Lost in all of this is the play of the Vikings’ Adrian Peterson. As much as I love to take shots at the Sooners (Hook em Horns!), there is no denying that AP is the real deal. Going into the draft, there was some concern about his “durability issues” since he had been injured a few times in college. Luckily, for the Vikings and their fans, that is why we have scouts in the NFL. You don’t have to look far to see that his injuries were to three separate locations, so the idea of him having durability issues was ridiculous.

Adrian Peterson is quietly having a record year as a rookie. He currently leads the NFL in rushing with 607 yards and has done this on 96 carries for an insane 6.3 yards per attempt. He is on pace for 1,942 yards on the ground, which would be an all-time record for rookies. The record is currently held by Eric Dickerson with 1,808 yards in 1983. While I could not find information on the most 100 yard games in a season for rookies, he is on pace for 13 such games which would put him in second place behind Barry Sanders (14 games) in 1997. If he continues at this pace he will have 13 rushing touchdowns, which would tie him for 9th overall for a rookie. Those ahead of him?
Eric Dickerson (1983) 18 td
Ickey Woods (1988) 15 td
Mike Anderson (2000) 15 td
Clinton Portis (2002) 15 td
Gale Sayers (1965) 14 td
Barry Sanders (1989) 14 td
Curtis Martin (1995) 14 td
Fred Taylor (1998) 14 td

Needless to say, that is not bad company to be thrown in with. What makes his season really amazing is that he is leading the Vikings to the number one rushing offense in the league with 170.2 yards per game. AP is chipping in 121.4 yard per game, which is more than 18 other teams. Although they have the 28th passing offense (169.2 yards/game) the offense is ranked 12th overall. The quarterback situation is not looking good, so it’s safe to say that AP is carrying the offense on his back.

If you’re not yet convinced, look at his total yards from scrimmage. He’s on pace for 2,502 total yards which is 73 more than Marshall Faulk’s record in 1999. Yes, he’s that good. If you follow college football, you knew that AP would be a franchise player. Like I said before, I love ripping on Oklahoma, but AP has shut me up on a number of occasions. So I’ve eaten enough humble pie to know that he’s going to be great, but I had no clue he would be this good. He’s putting up these numbers when teams know that he’s going to be running the ball, he’s facing a ton of eight man fronts. Imagine the numbers he could put up if the Vikings had a passing game to keep defenses honest, it’s scary. He’s been knocked for “durability issues” and his stand-up running style, but the bottom line is that the man is a beast. He has been compared to Eric Dickerson and, in this case, the numbers don’t lie. He has the talent to be a Hall of Fame back, but time will tell the story.

Again, I apologize for the short column this week, but I look forward to your feedback. Send feedback, hate mail, and brownies to: chris@phatdragon.com

The quarterback rating system is widely used in the NFL today. Anytime somebody wants to praise or discredit a quarterback, you will hear about their rating as if it were an accurate statistic. This sounds great when you’re bashing a quarterback and they have a horrendous rating, such as Ryan Leaf and his 50.0 rating. It also sounds legit when you’re praising Peyton Manning and mention that his career rating is a 94.8. Unfortunately this rating system isn’t bullet proof and, if you were to go squarely by the numbers, it can make a bad quarterback sound great and a great quarterback sound horrible. For instance, Billy Volek has the 12th best rating for quarterbacks with at least 13 games experience with a 86.8. Does anyone really think that he is the 12th best quarterback in the league? As for Vince Young (I can’t wait to hear my friend, Jason, respond to this) he has a 66.8 rating which ranks him 52nd in the league. In other words he would be on the lower rung of second-string quarterbacks if you went strictly on rating. Granted he’s not in the top tier of quarterbacks in the league, but he leads his team to victory quite often, so the rating doesn’t reflect his play at all. If that doesn’t convince you, then take a look at Brett Favre. Brett Favre ranks 16th in the league for career ratings. That’s right, two Super Bowl appearances, three consecutive MVP awards, eight Pro Bowl trips, and six All-Pro selections, to go along with almost every major passing record, but your quarterback rating is going list you 16th?

I understand that statistics don’t always tell the story, and that’s fine and well, so why create the quarterback rating in the first place? The name itself implies that it is intended to rate a quarterback’s performance, which it does a poor job of. So how does this rating work? You’ll be hard-pressed to find anyone that knows the formula. I had no clue what it consisted of until I began researching it. The information you need is:

1) completion percentage (C)
2) yards per attempt (Y)
3) touchdowns per attempt (T)
4) interceptions per attempt (I)

So far, so good, right? Right off the bat you can see some holes, but they are fairly minor. For instance, a quarterback in a west coast offense is going to have a much lower Y and T values than a quarterback in an offense that attacks downfield, but they will probably have a higher C value. But again, these are fairly minor issues with the system so far. Let’s take an imaginary quarterback and his output for one game and quickly get his rating. Let’s start with his C value. Unfortunately the C value is not simply 75.2 if their completion percentage is 75.2%, you must enter it into a formula to get the C value. You take the completion percentage of 75.2 and subtract 30 from it so it becomes 45.2 and then divide that value by 20 so it becomes 2.26. Don’t ask the why, because I have no clue. A 2.26 is pretty good, because the max value for any of the variables is 2.375. So anyhow, at this point C = 2.26.

Now onto the Y value; let’s say the yards per attempt (ypa) is 7.4. Take the ypa and subtract 3 from it (7.4 – 3 = 4.4) and then divide that value by 4 (4.4 / 4 = 1.1) When you consider the fact that a 7.4 ypa is very good, but it gives you a poor Y value, you see some more holes in this formula. Tom Brady is tearing defenses apart with an 8.75 ypa and that would only give him 1.4375 which is far away from a 2.375. You need a 12.5 ypa to get the max 2.375. But back to our quarterback, his Y = 1.1.

For the T value, you will take the touchdowns per attempt and multiply it by 20, so let’s say he threw 30 passes and had 3 touchdowns, his touchdowns per attempt would be 0.1. So 0.1 * 20 = 2. This value seems pretty fair overall, except when looking at the west coast vs long ball offense. But again, our quarterback’s T = 2

To get his I value, let’s say he threw 1 interception in this game. One interception out of 30 passes gives him a 0.333 interceptions per attempt. Take that value and multiply it by 25 (0.033 * 25 = 0.825) and then subtract that number from 2.375 (2.375 – 0.825 = 1.55). Out of all of the values, I think this one is the most fair as 1.55 is pretty close to 2.375 for giving up one interception. So our quarterback has the value of I = 1.55

So as you can see, this didn’t go near as quickly as we had hoped. But we’re almost done, so no need to stop now. Let’s review the values that we have figured out:
C = 2.26.
Y = 1.1.
T = 2
I = 1.55

The last step is to add all of these values (2.26 + 1.1 + 2 + 1.55 = 6.91). Take that value and divide it by 6 and then multiply that result by 100. (6.91 / 6 = 1.1516) (1.1516 * 100 = 115.16) So we now know that our quarterback has a 115.16 rating for this game in which he had 222 yards passing, 75.2% passing completion, 7.4 yards per attempt, 3 touchdowns and 1 interception on 30 attempts. Not a bad days work! If you’d like to play around with a quarterback rating calculator, visit this site: www.primecomputing.com

After looking at how the rating is figured, I have only one question: Why? The formula is far from accurate, and no other position has a rating system. The system was created based on historical averages, but now that the NFL has changed the rules to increase scoring, it needs updating to say the least. Of the 30 quarterbacks in the Hall of Fame, 17 of them have a rating below 80.0 and that includes John Elway! Yes, I know the game has changed quite a bit, especially with passing, but this just goes to show you how this system is not worth using. In case you’re a statistics dork like me, here is the list of Hall of Fame quarterbacks and their ratings:

Steve Young 96.8
Joe Montana 92.3
Jim Kelly 87.1
Otto Graham 86.6
Dan Marino 86.4
Warren Moon 84.2
Roger Staubach 83.4
Len Dawson 82.6
Sonny Jurgensen 82.6
Troy Aikman 81.6
Bart Starr 80.5
Fran Tarkenton 80.4
Dan Fouts 80.2
John Elway 79.9
Johnny Unitas 78.2
Bob Griese 77.1
Norm Van Brocklin 75.1
Sid Luckman 75.0
Y.A. Tittle 74.3
Sammy Baugh 72.2
Terry Bradshaw 70.9
Joe Namath 65.5
Bobby Layne 63.4
Bob Waterfield 61.6
George Blanda 61.1
Clarence Parker 53.0
Earl “Dutch” Clark 40.3
Jimmy Conzelman, Benny Friedman, Paddy Driscoll did not have enough recorded statistics to properly rate them

As for current quarterbacks, here are their career ratings. Again, I have only included quarterbacks with 13 or more games played:
Peyton Manning 94.8
Tony Romo 94.7
Kurt Warner 94.0
Carson Palmer 91.4
Daunte Culpepper 90.8
Tom Brady 90.3
Marc Bulger 89.7
Philip Rivers 89.4
Chad Pennington 89.3
Ben Roethlisberger 89.2
Jeff Garcia 87.1
Trent Green 86.9
Billy Volek 86.8
Matt Hasselbeck 85.4
Drew Brees 85.4
Brett Favre 85.3
Donovan McNabb 85.3
Jake Delhomme 85.2
Brian Griese 84.3
Mark Brunell 84.2
Jay Cutler 84.0
Damon Huard 83.5
Steve McNair 83.1
Brad Johnson 83.1
David Garrard 83.1
Jamie Martin 82.3
Matt Schaub 82.2
Byron Leftwich 80.0
Kelly Holcomb 79.2
Jason Campbell 79.2
Kelly Holcomb 79.2
Charlie Batch 78.6
Jon Kitna 76.9
JP Losman 76.8
Gus Frerotte 75.2
David Carr 75.2
Patrick Ramsay 74.9
Seneca Wallace 74.3
Eli Manning 74.2
Kerry Collins 73.2
Derek Anderson 73.1
Josh McCown 72.4
Kyle Boller 71.7
Matt Leinart 71.2
Chris Simms 71.2
AJ Feeley 71.1
Trent Dilfer 70.8
Todd Collins 70.4
Charlie Frye 70.2
Joey Harrington 69.4
Rex Grossman 69.3
Vince Young 66.8
Anthony Wright 66.4
Alex Smith 65.7
Bruce Gradkowski 64.9
Ken Dorsey 63.5
Trent Edwards 62.0
Kyle Orton 59.7
Tarvaris Jackson 53.3

And finally, a little record information on the quarterback rating. Steve Young set the NFL record for the highest career rating with 96.8. The single season record of 121.1 was set by Peyton Manning in 2004. Also in 2004, Ben Roethlisberger set the rookie record with 98.1.

So now that math class is over, what are your thoughts on the quarterback rating system? Please feel free to send feedback to chris@phatdragon.com Also feel free to contact me if you have any players or topics that you would like to see covered on Behind the Numbers.

In my first edition of Behind the Numbers we take a look at Brett Favre. Favre has endured his share of criticism over the years and is in the middle of a career season. He has broken a few records already this year and looks to do more of the same. Let’s take a look at the history of number 4.

Humble beginnings

While Brett Favre will go down as one of the greatest quarterbacks in NFL history, but he didn’t start out as a blue chip prospect destined for the NFL. Brett was raised in Kiln, Mississippi, the second of Irving and Bonita Favre’s four children. He earned his first varsity letter in baseball, playing as an 8th grader. When it came to football, Brett was an all-around player. While he played quarterback, he also played strong safety, placekicker, punter, and even as a lineman. Due to the depth at running back on his teams his offensive coach, and father, decided to run a wishbone offense. Brett rarely had more than 5 attempts per game so, needless to say, he wasn’t a highly recruited quarterback. In fact, he was only offered one scholarship, from Southern Mississippi, and that was to play as a defensive back. Ever the competitor, Brett went to Southern Miss but decided to play quarterback. His freshman year Brett was the 7th string quarterback, which is probably somewhere between water boy and “who’s that kid over there wearing number 4?” As luck would have it Brett was given his chance very early, during the second half of the third game of the season versus Tulane. Battling a hang-over from the night before, Brett led his team to a comeback victory, tossing two touchdowns in the process.

Player on the rise

By his junior year, Brett was ready to breakout. He led the Golden Eagles to a major upset over sixth-ranked Florida State, throwing the game winning touchdown with 23 seconds remaining. Right before his senior year, Brett was involved in a serious car accident that resulted in him having 30 inches of his small intestine removed. As someone that has gone through stomach surgery (colostomy) I can tell you that it is not easy to bounce back from such a surgery. Just six weeks later, Brett led the Golden Eagles to an upset victory over Alabama. Alabama Coach, Gene Stallings, said after the game “You can call it a miracle or a legend or whatever you want to. I just know that on that day, Brett Favre was larger than life.” By this time, Brett was ready to play in the NFL and was selected in the second round, 33rd overall by the Atlanta Falcons.

More struggles

As a second round draft pick, many players expect to have a bright future with their team. Unfortunately for Favre, head coach Jerry Glanville did not like the selection of Favre and was quoted as saying that it would take a plane crash before he’d put Favre into a game. At the time, the Falcons were led by Chris Miller and were the #5 offense in the league. Brett’s first pass during that regular season was an interception returned for a touchdown. He only attempted three more passes that year and none of them were completions. Needless to say, his future was not looking good in Atlanta. During the off-season Green Bay GM, Ron Wolf, traded a first round pick (used on fellow Southern Miss teammate Tony Smith, RB) to bring Brett to the packers as a backup to Don Majkowski. As part of the trade process, Brett was required to take a physical. The physical revealed that Brett had avascular necrosis, which is the degenerative hip condition that ended the career of superstar Bo Jackson. This was obviously a huge concern for the doctors, so they recommended to fail Brett on the physical. Wolf was so impressed with Brett that he overruled the recommendation and the trade went through. Brett was given his NFL opportunity during the second game of the 1992 season against the Buccaneers. The Packers were down 17-0 at half time, so head coach Mike Holmgren sat Don Majkowski and handed the offense over to Brett. His first pass was deflected, which he caught himself for -7 yards, the only reception of his career. The Packers went on to lose that game 31-3 and Brett was far from impressive. The next game, Majkowski injured his ankle against the Bengals and was out for four weeks. Once again Brett filled in for Majkowski and had a horrendous performance, fumbling 4 times during the contest. The Packers’ fans were so upset that they began chanting for fellow backup QB, Ty Detmer, to enter the game.

The Legend Begins

When fans are hoping for Ty Detmer, you know things aren’t looking good, so how did Brett respond? By giving the Packers faithful a glimpse of the future. With 1:07 left in the game, he led the Packers on a 92 yard drive that ended when Brett threw the game-winning touchdown with 13 seconds remaining. Brett led the Packers to another win the next week, against the Steelers, but they went on to lose four of their next five games before going on a six game winning streak. Unfortunately they missed the playoffs with a 9-7 after getting shelled by the Vikings 27-7 during week 17. Even though they saw a disappointing end to their season, Brett went to his first Pro Bowl and it was clear that the Packers were ready to ascend to the next level. The 1993 season saw the Packers go 9-7 again but this time they made the playoffs, beating the Lions and then lost to the Cowboys 27-17. Although the 9-7 record was far from impressive, the Packers were 6th overall in total offense, a ranking that would improve over the next few years. Brett was a free agent, but Ron Wolf worked hard to sign him to a five-year, $19 million contract, making it clear that Brett was the face of the franchise. The next season the Packers went 9-7 for the third straight season, but their seven losses were only by a six point average, including three games decided by three points or less. Just like the year before, the Packers beat the Lions in the Wild Card game and then lost to the Cowboys in the Divisional game. This was the first time since Vince Lombardi that the Packers made the playoffs in back-to-back years. It was clear that the Packers were a team to reckon with. The 1995 season saw the Packers with an 11-5 record, with three of the losses being by just three points. This was the franchise’s best record since 1972 when they went 10-4. Brett won the first of his three consecutive MVP awards as he led the league in passing yards (4,413) and touchdowns (38) along with his personal record of a 99.5 quarterback rating. Unlike the previous two playoffs, the Packers won their Divisional game and advanced to the NFC Championship game. Unfortunately they were stopped by the Cowboys for the third year in a row with a 38-27 loss. The last time a Packers team had gone this far was in 1967 when they won Super Bowl II. Even with all the excitement, one question still remained: could they make it all the way? The Packers were one of the top 10 defenses, and were a top 5 offense, but when it came playoff time they always seemed to fail. The team was extremely talented, but they needed to come together at the right time. Sure, it’s great to win during week 5 and 6, but it’s more important to be top notch at the end of the season.

As Brett has shown his entire career, it’s not wise to question him and his team’s abilities. The next season Brett led the Packers to a 13-3 record, best in the NFL and took them all the way to Super Bowl XXXI in New Orleans. This was only an hour drive from the town where Brett was raised, so it was a coming home of sorts for the Mississippi-born slinger. The Packers had the number 1 offense and defense and looked prime to destroy the Patriots. On the biggest stage of his career, Brett was 14 of 27 for 246 yards and scored 3 touchdowns, including 1 on the ground. For the first time since Super Bowl II, the Packers were world champions and looked prime to repeat. The next season, the Packers again went 13-3 and advanced to Super Bowl XXXII, heavily favored over John Elway and the Broncos. Although Brett was 25 of 42 for 256 yards with 3 touchdowns and only 1 interception, the Broncos won 31-24, cementing the legacy of Elway.

A Long Decade

After the disappointing loss in Super Bowl XXXII, the Packers were looking to redeem themselves. Unfortunately the defense dropped from 5th to 11th, along with the offense going from 2nd to 6th. Brett was in the top 5 for every major passing category, but the defense couldn’t keep their end of the bargain. The Packers went 11-5 and lost to a tough 49ers’ team 30-27 in a Wild Card game. At the end of the season, head coach Mike Holmgren left for Seattle and Ray Rhodes took over for a disappointing 8-8 season and was replaced by Mike Sherman. Although the Packers missed the playoffs in their first season under Sherman, they were back from 2001-2004. In 2005 they suffered their first losing record (4-12) in 14 seasons, the longest non-losing record in the NFL at the time. During this time Brett continued to play at an exceptionally high level, but as with most quarterbacks he received pretty much all of the blame for his team’s struggles. During the final game of the 2001 regular season, Brett Favre was sacked by Michael Strahan which gave Strahan the NFL single-season record at 22.5. Many people have criticized Brett, claiming he gave Strahan the sack. When looking at the type of player Brett is, this is a very unfair criticism. I personally doubt that Brett had intended to hand Strahan the sack because he’s too much of a competitor to let the other team have anything. Unfortunately, so much was written about this that it is likely to be remembered for a long time. Since 1998, Favre and the Packers are 2-5 in playoff action, with Favre showing a 70.1 quarterback rating. These stats have seen many people, including myself, questioning whether or not Brett should be playing at this time. We should have learned by now not to question him, but what’s the fun in that? Even though Brett had overcome so many obstacles, things were still not so bright in Green Bay. In 2005 he led the league in interceptions with 29, and only had 20 touchdowns and his 70.9 quarterback rating was 31st in the league. What most of us forgot was the fact that the Packers lost a number of players to injury, including Ahman Green and Javon Walker. Statistically this was the worst season of his career which led many of us to assume that he would retire, which he did not. 2006 was supposed to be Brett’s last year but due to the talent on the team, and a four game winning streak to end the season, he came back for 2007. At the beginning of the season Brett commented that they had the most talented team since he had been there. Needless to say, many people slammed him for the comment, but looking at their performance lately, it’s hard to disagree with him. During the off-season the Packers were interested in trading for Randy Moss, but refused to guarantee him money so he went to the Patriots. Brett was livid over the situation and there are rumors that he asked for a trade. He had denied the trade request and I highly doubt that he ever asked for it.

Personal Struggles

Brett has seen his share of personal issues during his time in the league, but has always overcome them. The first word that comes to most people’s minds when they hear Brett Favre is “tough.” You have to be a tough player to set the consecutive starts record for quarterbacks after taking hits for years on end. His brother-in-law was killed in an ATV accident on his property. Hurricane Katrina destroyed his family’s home in Mississippi and his property there as well. His wife, Deanna was diagnosed with breast cancer in 2004 but, much like her husband, she fought through it and was expected to make a complete recovery. In response to this hardship, Deanna created The Deanna Favre Hope Foundation, which focuses on breast cancer prevention and services for all women, even those without current medical care. The biggest tragedy Brett has endured was the loss of his father, Irving, who died from a sudden heart attack while driving. Brett played the day after his father’s death against the Raiders, a Monday night game. Losing a parent is one of the hardest things you’ll ever endure. As someone who lost his father last year, I can tell you that even now I’m still not over it. How Brett could lace the cleats the day after is beyond me. I say that with great respect for him, not criticism as some did. When writers and sportscasters criticized him for playing the game in honor of his father, that shows that they are willing to do anything for a story. As always, Brett responded remarkably, going 22 of 30 for 399 yards and 4 touchdowns, 311 yards and 4 touchdowns coming in the first half. The performance has gone down as one of the greatest of all time. Unless you’ve been in that type situation, you really don’t understand how amazing his performance was. By the end, the Raiders’ fans were cheering for Favre, something that probably hasn’t happened before and might not happen again in Oakland.

The Legend Returns

The Packers were a big question mark going into the season, but I don’t think that anyone could have expected the production they’ve shown so far. At 4-0, they tied for the best record in the league and Brett is looking like himself 10 years ago. Lately, many writers and sportscasters have said that he is playing better than he ever has. Usually you can take such comments with a grain of salt, but looking at his numbers you will see that such comments are not so far off base. During his 3 consecutive MVP seasons, Brett averaged 4059 yards passing, 60.7% completion, 37 touchdowns and 14 interceptions for a 95.97 quarterback rating. Currently he is on pace for 4820 yards, 65.9% completion, 32 touchdowns, and 8 interceptions. Those would be the best numbers of his career, with the exception of touchdown passes. Even if he sees a drop in production, he is on pace to do better than his career averages of 3833 yards passing, 61.2% completion, 27 touchdowns, and 18 interceptions. So far this season he has set the record for most wins by a quarterback, most touchdown passes, and he will tie or break the records for most interceptions, most games played by a quarterback, and most 20+ touchdown seasons. And with the NFC being weak this year, there is a decent chance that he could lead the Packers back to the Super Bowl. Not bad for a guy that should have retired two years ago.

Looking Ahead

Many people, including myself, forget how awesome Brett Favre truly is. He has set almost every major quarterback record and has done so by overcoming many obstacles in his life. Next year will probably be his last season, but no matter what, we should enjoy watching him now. When a Hall of Fame player is putting up career numbers, it’s an exciting time to be an NFL fan. Even if Brett doesn’t win another Super Bowl, it looks like he’s going to go out with quite a bang. What a fitting way to end the career of one of the most enjoyable players to ever strap on a helmet.

I hope you’ve enjoyed this look at the career of Brett Favre. Feel free to send any comments, suggestions, hate mail, etc to chris@phatdragon.com

Many people, including myself, have penciled in, no make that used permanent marker, the Patriots as Super Bowl champions this year. With all of the new weapons for Tom Brady, along with Adalius Thomas, this team looks fantastic. Unfortunately there is reason for concern with Rodney Harrison being suspended the first four games of the season and Richard Seymour being placed on the Physically Unable to Play list, keeping him out for at least the first six weeks of the season. During that time the Patriots face the Jets, Chargers, Bills, Bengals, Browns, and Cowboys. While I’m never one to underestimate Belichick and his boys, facing four playoff calibur teams without a dominating player like Seymour is going to be tough. Not to mention that three of those games are going to be without Rodney Harrison as well.

It’s a good thing the Patriots have one of the best offenses in the league and have Adalius Thomas to potentially fill in for Seymour while he is out. The real question will be in the secondary, however. Asante Samuel is going to take a few weeks to get into the rhythm so this is where the real weakness will be. It’s going to take a lot of creative game planning on the defensive side to make up for these losses. Then the question becomes whether or not Seymour is able to play after missing the first six games. If he’s held out any longer, this season might not be as spectacular as many people have predicted.

The biggest story this NBA offseason has been the new Boston Celtics. The team with the second worst record last season could end up in the NBA Finals this next year. Obviously picking up Ray Allen and Kevin Garnett will push you in that direction, but something that should not be overlooked is the additions made since the Kevin Garnett trade. The Celtics signed free agent James Posey, a shutdown defender with championship experience from his days in Miami. Posey is going to give the Celtics a great deal of versatility because, not only is he a great defender, but he has a nice three point shot and offensive skills as well.

The other big pickup during this offseason was adding Tom Thibodeau to the coaching staff. Not familiar with that name? In 17 years in the league, his teams have ranked in the top 10 defensively a whopping 14 times. And now he has, arguably, the best group he has ever worked with. Combine that with the fact that the east is still a very weak conference, and this has all the makings of a team ready to make a run to the NBA Finals. Sure, this teams does not have a lot of depth, but defense wins championships and with Posey on the roster, they can rest their big stars as the season wears on.

When the University of Oregon sends you a letter-of-intent when you’re just a few weeks old, you know there are big expectations. When your college record is 25-3 and you lead your team to wins in the Holiday Bowl and Fiesta Bowl, the expectations are even bigger. When you are 4th in the Heisman voting and picked 3rd in the NFL draft, you had better be a perennial Pro-Bowler and probably bring a Super Bowl ring home as well. The expectations are going to be that big. For the past few years, Joey Harrington has been labeled a bust. Harrington is considered a bust because he failed to lead a horrible Lions franchise to the playoffs and has not been close to making a Pro Bowl. Things went so poorly in Detroit that the fans actually booed him when a United Way commercial, featuring him, was shown at a home game.

Then, in May of 2006, he was finally traded (or released from his sentence some would say) to the Miami Dolphins ending his career in Detroit with a 18-37 record. The change of scenery was good for Harrington as he was 5-6 and finally looked like a decent NFL quarterback. Due to his high salary cap number, and Trent Green’s pending arrival, Harrington was released by the Dolphins. One month later, Harrington signed a 2-year $6 million deal with the Atlanta Falcons as the back-up to Michael Vick. Now, with Vick’s NFL career possibly finished, Harrington finds himself at the top of the depth chart. Many football fans are already tossing in the towel on the Falcons season, but let’s take a closer look at Harrington’s career.

With the arrival of Calvin Johnson, Detroit looks like a team that might be able to sneak their way into the playoffs. But let’s remember how awful the Lions have been over the past six years. The Detroit defense was ranked 24th overall during the time that Harrington was there and the team’s top running backs each year averaged being ranked 25th during that time. In 2004 Harrington led Detroit to a 6-10 record where, if you ignore 3 blowout losses to Philadelphia, Green Bay, and Indianapolis, they were outscored by an average of 5 points per game.  So what changed for Harrington? The addition of rookies Roy Williams (54 rec for 817 yards and 8 tds) and Kevin Jones (1133 yards, 4.7 yds/carry and 5 tds ) finally gave Harrington some decent weapons on offense. The previous year, his top running back was Shawn Bryson (606 yards, 3.8 yds/carry and 3 tds) and top receiver was Az-zahir Hakim (49 rec, 449 yards, 4 tds). Not only that, but the Detroit defense was ranked 18th, compared to 31st and 25th the previous two seasons. In his first season with actual talent around him, Harrington had a 56% completion percentage to go along with 3047 yards, 19tds and only 12ints.

If that is too many statistics for you, let me sum it up real quickly: Detroit was a horribly pathetic organization, so when Harrington finally had talent around him he played well. When you consider that Detroit was running a West Coast offense that Harrington was ill-suited for, his numbers aren’t as bad as some would have you think. His passing yards, based on a 16 game season, have improved in every year that he has played. In fact, last year he was 12th overall based on a full 16 game schedule. When he had a good defense for the first time in his life, he led his team to a 5-6 record.

Bobby Petrino was brought to Atlanta because he is known as a quarterback’s coach. The thought was that he could design an offense that would allow Michael Vick to to accentuate the positive, eliminate the negative, and latch on to the affirmative. (Anyone else know that song?) I don’t doubt for one moment that Bobby Petrino is a great coach. That being the case, if he is the coach the Falcons thought they were getting, he should be able to work wonders with a talented player like Joey Harrington. I’m not saying that the Falcons will make the playoffs this year, but they weren’t going to with Michael Vick either. But for the first time in his NFL career, Joey Harrington is in a good situation. While the Falcons aren’t a great team, they are a huge improvement from the talent-free teams he had in Detroit.

With Michael Vick’s image forever tarnished, the Falcons fans want someone that won’t let them down and that will give them something to cheer for. I can’t think of a better player to give that to them than Harrington. As long as the fans and the Falcons organization are patient, this could be a blessing in disguise. This is Joey Harrington’s last chance to show that he belongs in the NFL. He is no longer expected to lead a team to the Super Bowl, he just needs to keep them competitive. He’s already been, unfairly, labeled a bust so as the saying goes “when you hit rock bottom you can’t go anywhere but up.”

The response to the imminent KG to Boston trade has been mixed, to say the least. Listening to the radio yesterday I was hearing caller after caller claim that Boston was going to win the championship this year. Then again they were also claiming the Patriots were going to be 16-0 and capture the Lombardi Trophy. This, of course, after the Red Sox win the World Series this year. Ok, so they weren’t the brightest of callers, but could they be right about the Celtics? After all, the Cavaliers made it to the NBA Finals with LeBron James and his “supporting cast”, so why can’t the Celtics do the same? There’s no doubt that the Celtics are going to have the best starting lineup in the East this year with Rajon Rondo, Ray Allen, Paul Pierce, Kevin Garnett, and Kendrick Perkins. But for all the talk about them being better than the Cavs, let’s not forget one very important thing; the Cavs were swept by the Spurs. Does this trade make the Celtics the best team in the NBA? No, not even close. So, in reality, the Celtics will need to win the East and then hope for some serious luck in the finals.

Now let’s look at the other side of the coin. Critics of this trade point out that the Celtics traded away a very promising big man in Al Jefferson and a slew of other players and draft picks for a guy towards the end of his prime. Ryan Gomes is a great utility player and would have been an excellent fit for the Celtics this year, and who knows what they could have done with the two first-round draft picks they traded. Some people are still saying that Gerald Green has a ton of potential and may pan out one day. This team has no depth. At first this was the side that I was on for this trade. But let’s start over and take a closer look at this trade.

The Celtics receive Kevin Garnett, one of the greatest players to ever play this game.  Garnett is the ultimate team player that has been surrounded by a pathetic group of players his entire career. Last year he was playing with Randy Foye, Ricky Davis, Trenton Hassell, and Mark Blount. His team didn’t even have a solid point guard situation. Now he’s got a promising point in Rajon Rondo, an excellent pair of scorers in Ray Allen and Paul Pierce, and a solid center in Kendrick Perkins. Ray Allen has been in a similar situation in that he has had little to no talent around him, and Paul Pierce has never been comfortable as being the face of the franchise. So now all three players are in their ideal situations and will be able to play comfortably.

Many people are saying that the Celtics have a 4 year window and then they’re done, but I’m not so sure about that. This trade signals a change in the philosophy for the Celtics. Free agents will be more willing to entertain the idea of coming to Boston, so they should be able to get a solid player in the future with the veteran exemption. The Celtics are going to be winners, make no doubt about it. Whether or not they can win a championship remains to be seen, but they will be winners. Even when these big 3 retire, the Celtics will be seen as an organization that is about winning. That perception will go a long way in building for the future. But for the time being, this is going to be a fun team to watch.